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各种不同的投资理论

YOUXIAOSHICHANGJIASHUO(EMH)

1965NIAN,MEIGUOZHIJIAGEDAXUEJINRONGXUEJIAOSHOUYOUJIN·FAMA(Eugene Fama),FABIAOLEYIPIANTIWEI《GUPIAOSHICHANGJIAGEXINGWEI》DELUNWEN,YU1970NIANDUIGAILILUNJINXINGLESHENHUA,BINGTICHUYOUXIAOSHICHANGJIASHUO(Efficient Markets Hypothesis,JIANCHENGEMH)。YOUXIAOSHICHANGJIASHUOYOUYIGEPOSHOUZHIYIDEQIANTIJIASHE,JICANYUSHICHANGDETOUZIZHEYOUZUGOUDELIXING,BINGQIENENGGOUXUNSUDUISUOYOUSHICHANGXINXIZUOCHUHELIFANYING。GAILILUNRENWEI,ZAIFALVJIANQUAN、GONGNENGLIANGHAO、TOUMINGDUGAO、JINGZHENGCHONGFENDEGUPIAOSHICHANG,YIQIEYOUJIAZHIDEXINXIYIJINGJISHI、ZHUNQUE、CHONGFENDIFANYINGZAIGUJIAZOUSHIDANGZHONG,QIZHONGBAOKUOQIYEDANGQIANHEWEILAIDEJIAZHI,CHUFEICUNZAISHICHANGCAOZONG,FOUZETOUZIZHEBUKENENGTONGGUOFENXIYIWANGJIAGEHUODEGAOYUSHICHANGPINGJUNSHUIPINGDECHAOELIRUN。

XINGWEIJINRONGXUE(BF)

1979NIAN,MEIGUOPULINSIDUNDAXUEDEXINLIXUEJIAOSHOUDANNIER·KANAMAN(Daniel Kahneman)DENGRENFABIAOLETIWEI《QIWANGLILUN:FENGXIANZHUANGTAIXIADEJUECEFENXI》DEWENZHANG,JIANLILERENLEIFENGXIANJUECEGUOCHENGDEXINLIXUELILUN,CHENGWEIXINGWEIJINRONGXUEFAZHANSHISHANGDEYIGELICHENGBEI。

XINGWEIJINRONGXUE(Behavioral Finance,JIANCHENGBF)SHIJINRONGXUE、XINLIXUE、RENLEIXUEDENGYOUJIJIEHEDEZONGHELILUN,LITUJIESHIJINRONGSHICHANGDEFEILIXINGXINGWEIHEJUECEGUILV。GAILILUNRENWEI,GUPIAOJIAGEBINGFEIZHIYOUQIYEDENEIZAIJIAZHISUOJUEDING,HAIZAIHENDACHENGDUSHANGSHOUDAOTOUZIZHEZHUTIXINGWEIDEYINGXIANG,JITOUZIZHEXINLIYUXINGWEIDUIZHENGQUANSHICHANGDEJIAGEJUEDINGJIQIBIANDONGJUYOUZHONGDAYINGXIANG。TASHIHEYOUXIAOSHICHANGJIASHUOXIANGDUIYINGDEYIZHONGXUESHUO,ZHUYAONEIRONGKEFENWEITAOLIXIANZHIHEXINLIXUELIANGBUFEN。